As Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” for announcing “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s trading partners approaches, the question in Beijing is whether this will be the moment when its nascent trade war with the US really escalates.

China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to a joint response to US tariffs after their first economic dialogue in five years. They plan to strengthen supply chains, cooperate on export controls, and pursue a free trade agreement.

China began joint army, navy and rocket force exercises around Taiwan as a "stern warning" against separatism. Taiwan sent warships to respond to China's navy approaching its coast.

There is a storm brewing across the Taiwan Strait. China has increased its military activity around Taiwan and deployed new landing barges in the South China Sea, while the counter-influence policies of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and shifts in US rhetoric are viewed as provocations by Beijing – fuelling a vicious circle of tensions.