Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey takes a look at the games that are scheduled and offers insight and analysis to help predict who will be victorious in head-to-head matchups.

Shots and chances were relatively close, but Toronto got a little more finishing from its top talent than the Lightning got from theirs. Goals were traded throughout the game, but the Maple Leafs never trailed and Tampa Bay couldn’t earn a tie after Auston Matthews opened the scoring in the first period.

Watch the Game Highlights from Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning, 01/20/2025

Matthew Knies had two goals and an assist as the Toronto Maple Leafs held on late to down the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3 on Monday.