Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of ...

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." – H.G. Wells ...

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

As we get more precise information (for example, from the Webb Space Telescope) the cloud of possible positions gets smaller. If the cloud still intersects the Earth’s position, the smaller cloud of ...

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games. Here are the predictions for Week 11. The ...

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.