Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak.

Calendar-year inflation forecasts from Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants typically start near 2% and then ...

Our new data page, CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services, details the evolution of inflation using the consumer ...

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of AI pricing and study its ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Fifteen months of new data since May 2023 continue to track closely along the path of a fitted nonlinear Phillips curve. This confirms earlier work that portrays the nonlinear empirical relationship ...

How can we learn more from financial market perspectives about the stance of monetary policy? Expanding the SF Fed’s Proxy Funds Rate data page to a weekly frequency provides detailed insights into ...

Standard asset pricing models reconcile high equity premia with smooth risk-free rates by inducing an inverse functional relationship between the mean and the variance of the stochastic discount ...

The economy has significantly improved from just two years ago. Inflation has fallen substantially, and the labor market has returned to a more sustainable path. A soft landing is achievable, and the ...