Again, we already know a flat yield curve (0.00 Curve Statistic) leads to a recession, but I found that there is a threshold at a Curve Statistic of 0.020 that has preceded a recession 6/8 times.

A key measure of the difference between long and short-term US Treasury yields has flattened to its lowest level since before the start of the Great Recession amid a debate over whether the gap is ...